College Football - Week 11 Predictions

Yet again, the college football week begins with a serious shakeup to the already questionable and widely criticized BCS. As I wrote about in my Week 10 review, the Big East champion doesn't deserve to play for the national title over a 1 loss team from the SEC, Big 12, or even the Pac-10....and thanks to the extraordinary defensive performance by the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers, it doesn't look like the Big East will have a team in the BCS Title Game. Sure, some people will argue that Rutgers deserves a spot against the Ohio State-Michigan winner if they run the table, but Rutgers has way too much ground to make up in the polls and computers, and there just isn't enough season left for that to happen. So, with one upset already in the books for Week 11, will there be any other surprises?...well, here's the Total System Failure Week 11 predictions which might shed a little light on what might actually happen on the gridiron this weekend:

#1 Ohio State at Northwestern - The #1 ranked Buckeyes continue their tour through the state of Illinois this weekend. The first stop on the Illinois state tour almost ended in disaster as Ron Zook's Illinois team almost shocked Ohio State. It's hard to imagine the Buckeyes coming out flat two weeks in a row, especially with their upcoming game against #2 Michigan just one week away. Northwestern is coming off a big win over Iowa last week, but let's all remember that Drew Tate is the quarterback for the Hawkeyes so beating Iowa is not exactly something to get overly excited about. While Northwestern does have a great running back in Tyrelle Sutton, he hasn't exactly played great against tough competition (see his 7 yards on 6 carries against Michigan). The Buckeyes will be one step closer to Glendale after Saturday, and this week, they'll be able to add a few style points to create even more hype for the Michigan game...Ohio State 52 Northwestern 3

#2 Michigan at Indiana - Much like Ohio State, Michigan was horrible last week. There's no other way to say, because having to survive a couple of passes into the end zone against a middle of the pack MAC team does not happen to the #2 ranked team in the country. Oh, and did I mention that the game with Ball State (the MAC team in question) was in the Big House? Unfortunately for Indiana, Michigan is not going to have two bad games in a row. There is just too much talent, and Lloyd Carr definitely has his team's attention after last week. I think the Indiana offense will be able to score some points, and I love Indiana WR James Hardy, but the Hoosiers don't have enough defense to contain Chad Henne and all of his weapons. Let the countdown to the showdown in Columbus, Ohio truly begin...Michigan 41 Indiana 14

#4 Texas at Kansas State - There was a time not too long ago when an evening road trip to the Little Apple (i.e., Manhattan, Kansas) would have posed significant problems for any #4 rated team in the country. However, Bill Snyder is no longer coaching Kansas State, and guys like QB Chad May, RB Darren Sproles, CB Terrance Newman, and DE Darren Howard are no longer wearing the purple and silver for the Wildcats. Kansas State is back on the road to respectability, but the Longhorns are trying to stay on the road to Glendale, and no quarterback in the country may be playing as well as Texas QB Colt McCoy. Texas is going to score points with McCoy throwing to Swede and Cosby, but the anemic Kansas State passing attack is not strong enough to stay with the Longhorns. Kansas State is averaging almost 4.5 yards per carry this year on the ground. Too bad for K-State that #2 ranked rushing defense of Texas is only allowing 1.87 yards per carry. The Longhorns continue to roll to the Big 12 title game ....Texas 49 Kansas State 10

Georgia at #6 Auburn - First of all, it is a travesty that the Deep South's Oldest Rivarly is being played at 11:30am CST. This is a football game that should always be played on a cool November evening. I have some great memories of freezing my butt off sitting in Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA and in Jordan-Hare Stadium watching the Tigers and the Dawgs do battle. Thanks to UGA's last season swoon, the Triple Dave combo will get the pleasure of broadcasting the game on LF Sports. Georgia comes in reeling....and I mean really reeling to the tune of having lost 4 of their last 5 games. To be honest, Georgia should be losers of five straight games, but the Dawg defense saved the day late in the game against Mississippi State. In spite of their struggles, Georgia is a very talented team. Auburn is likewise very talented and just continues to win games without any style, just substance. UGA QB Matthew Stafford is learning on the job as a freshman, and his 12 interceptions show just how much he is learning. Fortunately for Stafford, he is going up against an Auburn defense that does not intercept a lot of passes and will be without starting safety (and hero of the LSU game) Eric Brock. The early kickoff and the strange history of this series (see the Quero Veritas blog for an overview) indicates that this could be a long day for the home team...and you've got to believe that sooner or later Georgia is not going to turn the ball over 4 or 5 times in a game. It'll be an upset in Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday....Georgia 17 Auburn 13

South Carolina at #6 Florida - Of course, the storyline is Steve Spurrier returning the Swamp to take on his alma mater, and that's the reason this game was given the coveted CBS 3:30pm EST timeslot. Based on South Carolina's previous outings against highly ranked competition, you can see why the CBS folks believe that this will be a good game. South Carolina has come oh so close to three major upsets this year, including last week's failed comeback against Arkansas. If you add in Florida's overall poor play since the second half of the Auburn game a few weeks, ago, this game would seem to have upset written all over it...but South Carolina still has quarterback issues, and the Gator faithful are going to be extremely loud with its team back in the national title race with Louisville's loss on Thursday night. I don't think Urban Meyer will have any problems putting up style points against the Ole Ball Coach...Florida 31 South Carolina 13

#13 Tennessee at #11 Arkansas - Should Auburn manage to defeat Georgia early on Saturday afternoon, the orange and blue faithful will be paying close attention to the events transpiring in Arkansas on Saturday night. Tennessee QB Erik Ainge is out, and redshirt freshmen Jonathan Crompton will be leading the Vols offense into Fayetteville. Musical quarterbacks is not unique to the Vols as Houston Nutt has put Casey Dick at QB for the Razorbacks. For both Tennessee and Arkansas, their new quarterbacks overall played well in their respective first games, but for Crompton, this will be his first test on the road in the SEC. Did I mention that this game was at night too? It is going to be loud and Arkansas defensive coordinator Reggie Herring is going to throw everything he can at Crompton. Up until last week, LSU had an anemic rushing offense, but against the Vols defense, LSU put up 231 yards on the ground and averaged over 5 yards per carry - and LSU has nowhere as good as McFadden and Felix Jones. The Arkansas running game is the difference here...Arkansas 21 Tennessee 10

And now predictions for other games this week....

#7 USC 38 #21 Oregon 28
#8 California 31 Arizona 14
#9 Notre Dame 35 Air Force 17
#10 West Virginia 24 Cincinnati 10
#12 LSU 31 Alabama 7
#14 Boise State 38 San Jose State 21
Iowa 17 #16 Wisconsin 14
#17 Oklahoma 35 Texas Tech 17
Florida State 17 #18 Wake Forest 16
#19 Georgia Tech 30 North Carolina 10
#20 Virginia Tech 42 Kent State 14
#22 Boston College 34 Duke 7
#23 Maryland 16 Miami(FL) 14
Nebraska 24 #25 Texas A&M 20
Kentucky 24 Vanderbilt 17
Clemson 42 North Carolina State 13
Michigan State 31 Minnesota 28
Houston 35 Southern Methodist 14
Oregon State 27 UCLA 21
Washington State 31 Arizona State 20
South Florida 20 Syrcause 10

Note: Through 3 weeks of making predictions, season record is: 66-16 (0.805)