College Football - Week 12 Predictions

The week that the dynamic Disney duo of ABC and ESPN has been praying for has mercifully arrived. If I see one more breakdown of this game or hear the words "Judgement Day" uttered by one of the media pundits, I swear that I will vomit. Fortunately, for this college football fan, I won't be watching this 'classic' Big 10 showdown, because the best rivalry in college football - the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama - is slated for the same time slot. I am almost tempted to not even make a prediction on the supposed "Game of the Year", but of course, I don't want to disappoint my loyal readers by not covering this clash of the titans. So with the national title race still a mess and many bowl games scrambling to fill their spots, here are this week's Total System Failure Week 12 predictions:

#2 Michigan at #1 Ohio State - Well, the day has finally arrived... #1 vs. #2. Of course, this game took an unexpected turn yesterday when former Michigan head coach Bo Schembachler passed away at the age of 77. Last night, I heard the pundits discussing how the passing of the legendary head coach will impact this battle between #1 and #2. In my opinion, it won't matter one bit. Michigan will come out onto the football with a lot of emotion, but once the first hit of the game is made, it will just be a football game between two rivals. Both teams have explosive offenses lead by veteran quarterbacks who have plenty of weapons from which to choose. Both teams have defenses ranked amongst the top eight in the country. Big games like this usually come down to special teams and home field advantage. Both teams have explosive return games and solid punters...but where Michigan has its advantage is in the field goal kicking department with senior Garrett Rivas (15 of 18 this year on field goal attempts). However, this game is in Columbus, Ohio, and Jim Tressel seems to have Lloyd Carr's number as the Buckeyes have won 4 of 5 against Michigan since Tressel become the head coach. Make it 5 out of 6....Ohio State 24 Michigan 17

#17 California at #4 Southern Cal - This is the other marquee game of Week 12. USC could move right back into the driver's seat for a spot in the national title game if it can knock of California. California played a less than inspired game last week at Arizona, and it was obvious that the Golden Bears were looking ahead to the Trojans. USC always seems to get California's best shot, and I expect that the Golden Bears will be focused on the task at hand in spite of last week's letdown. Behind Nate Longshore, the California passing attack is ranked #12 in the country in, and the Trojans are only ranked #63 against the pass. USC will be focused on stopping California's running back tandem of Lynch and Forsett, so it will be on Longshore to exploit the USC secondary. For the Trojans offense, it will be up to John David Booty and his bevy of receivers to win this game, because the USC running backs are banged up. The Golden Bears are ranked #112 against the pass this year, so Booty will be lighting up the scoreboard in the Coleisum....Southern Cal 35 California 20

#5 Arkansas at Mississippi State - There are not a lot of great games on the docket this week in the SEC, but this showdown in Starkville does has some implications on the national title race. Mississippi State is starting to show signs of life under Sly Croom, and quarterback Matt Henig has been red-hot over the past three games. While Mississippi State has been showing steady improvement recently, no team in the SEC is hotter than the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas can lock up a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win in Starkville, and although Mississippi State has pulled some shockers before when nationally ranked teams have come to Scott Field, the Bulldogs have not had to stop a running back tandem quite like Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. The #70 ranked defense in the country doesn't have a shot to slow these two running backs down...Arkansas 31 Mississippi State 14

#7 Rutgers at Cincinnati - Rutgers is now officially the hunted, and the question is how will they respond in a nationally televised road game in a hostile environment. This game has less to do with what type of team Cincinnati is than how Rutgers can handle all of the attention it has received since knocking off Louisville last week. Fortunately, for Rutgers, Greg Schiano has been around major programs and knows how to maintain focus. Also, with 23 seniors on the roster, Schiano has a strong nucleus of experienced players to help try and maintain the focus on the task at hand. Cincinnati has been solid this year. The Bearcats gave Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Louisville all they wanted this year. Neither one of these teams are exactly offensive juggernauts as both teams are ranked between #75 and #80 in total offense, but Rutgers uses its defense and running game to win ballgames. Those two elements are always key in stealing road wins in any conference....Rutgers 17 Cincinnati 10

#19 Virginia Tech at #14 Wake Forest - Wake Forest just continues to disprove all of the doubters out there. I thought for sure that Florida State would dominate the Demon Deacons on a Saturday night in Doak Campbell Stadium, but it was Jim Grobe's team that did the dominating. You would think it is time to start giving Wake Forest the respect they deserve, but people (including myself) still have doubts, especially because a suddenly resurgent Virginia Tech team comes to Winston-Salem, NC this week. Wake Forest is #101 in total offense, and Virginia Tech has the #1 ranked defense in the country. Only two teams have scored more than 20 points against the Hokies this year (Georgia Tech and Boston College), and those are the two games that Frank Beamer's team have lost this year. Of course, it's not like Virginia Tech has an explosive offense either, but the difference in the defenses will be the key in this game...Virginia Tech 16 Wake Forest 9

#15 Auburn at Alabama - While the rest of the free world is watching Ohio State and Michigan battle for the national title in Columbus, Ohio, the entire state of Alabama will come to a stop to watch the Iron Bowl. Had Auburn won last week against Georgia, this game would mean a lot more, but today, this game is just about bragging rights for the next 365 days in a state where college football is all that matters. One stat that really jumped out at me this week is that Auburn leads the all-time series 11-2 in games played on the campuses of each team. Auburn is still yet to lose in Tuscaloosa, and the higher ranked team is 37-10 in the rivalry since 1955. All of this points to an Auburn victory, but something just seems missing from this Auburn team. There is just no leadership, no spark, and no desire. The defense is reeling, and the offense just does not have enough playmakers at wide receiver to keep the opposing defense honest. Alabama has a solid running game, a hot quarterback in John Parker Wilson, and an explosive receiving corps. Auburn's secondary was exploited by a freshman quarterback last week, and Alabama is much more talented at receiver and quarterback. Plus, I think Auburn has jinxed itself with all of this "Fear the Thumb" crap. Look for Alabama to give Auburn the finger...Alabama 20 Auburn 16

And now predictions for other games this week...

#3 Florida 63 Western Carolina 0
#6 Notre Dame 45 Army 10
#9 LSU 41 Ole Miss 6
#10 Louisville 28 South Florida 14
#12 Wisconsin 28 Buffalo 7
#13 Boise State 56 Utah State 10
#16 Oklahoma 28 Baylor 13
#18 Georgia Tech 31 Duke 14
#20 Boston College 17 #21 Maryland 10
#22 Tennessee 24 Vanderbilt 10
#23 Brigham Young 38 New Mexico 17
North Carolina State 20 North Carolina 13
Missouri 31 Iowa State 17
Oklahoma State 38 Texas Tech 35
Kansas State 24 Kansas 21
Purdue 20 Indiana 10
Iowa 28 Minnesota 14
Oregon 35 Arizona 20
Arizona State 42 UCLA 31
South Carolina 24 Middle Tennessee State 17
East Carolina 28 Rice 17

Note: Through 4 weeks of making predictions, season record is: 86-23 (0.788)