College Football - Week 11 Predictions

Yet again, the college football week begins with a serious shakeup to the already questionable and widely criticized BCS. As I wrote about in my Week 10 review, the Big East champion doesn't deserve to play for the national title over a 1 loss team from the SEC, Big 12, or even the Pac-10....and thanks to the extraordinary defensive performance by the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers, it doesn't look like the Big East will have a team in the BCS Title Game. Sure, some people will argue that Rutgers deserves a spot against the Ohio State-Michigan winner if they run the table, but Rutgers has way too much ground to make up in the polls and computers, and there just isn't enough season left for that to happen. So, with one upset already in the books for Week 11, will there be any other surprises?...well, here's the Total System Failure Week 11 predictions which might shed a little light on what might actually happen on the gridiron this weekend:

#1 Ohio State at Northwestern - The #1 ranked Buckeyes continue their tour through the state of Illinois this weekend. The first stop on the Illinois state tour almost ended in disaster as Ron Zook's Illinois team almost shocked Ohio State. It's hard to imagine the Buckeyes coming out flat two weeks in a row, especially with their upcoming game against #2 Michigan just one week away. Northwestern is coming off a big win over Iowa last week, but let's all remember that Drew Tate is the quarterback for the Hawkeyes so beating Iowa is not exactly something to get overly excited about. While Northwestern does have a great running back in Tyrelle Sutton, he hasn't exactly played great against tough competition (see his 7 yards on 6 carries against Michigan). The Buckeyes will be one step closer to Glendale after Saturday, and this week, they'll be able to add a few style points to create even more hype for the Michigan game...Ohio State 52 Northwestern 3

#2 Michigan at Indiana - Much like Ohio State, Michigan was horrible last week. There's no other way to say, because having to survive a couple of passes into the end zone against a middle of the pack MAC team does not happen to the #2 ranked team in the country. Oh, and did I mention that the game with Ball State (the MAC team in question) was in the Big House? Unfortunately for Indiana, Michigan is not going to have two bad games in a row. There is just too much talent, and Lloyd Carr definitely has his team's attention after last week. I think the Indiana offense will be able to score some points, and I love Indiana WR James Hardy, but the Hoosiers don't have enough defense to contain Chad Henne and all of his weapons. Let the countdown to the showdown in Columbus, Ohio truly begin...Michigan 41 Indiana 14

#4 Texas at Kansas State - There was a time not too long ago when an evening road trip to the Little Apple (i.e., Manhattan, Kansas) would have posed significant problems for any #4 rated team in the country. However, Bill Snyder is no longer coaching Kansas State, and guys like QB Chad May, RB Darren Sproles, CB Terrance Newman, and DE Darren Howard are no longer wearing the purple and silver for the Wildcats. Kansas State is back on the road to respectability, but the Longhorns are trying to stay on the road to Glendale, and no quarterback in the country may be playing as well as Texas QB Colt McCoy. Texas is going to score points with McCoy throwing to Swede and Cosby, but the anemic Kansas State passing attack is not strong enough to stay with the Longhorns. Kansas State is averaging almost 4.5 yards per carry this year on the ground. Too bad for K-State that #2 ranked rushing defense of Texas is only allowing 1.87 yards per carry. The Longhorns continue to roll to the Big 12 title game ....Texas 49 Kansas State 10

Georgia at #6 Auburn - First of all, it is a travesty that the Deep South's Oldest Rivarly is being played at 11:30am CST. This is a football game that should always be played on a cool November evening. I have some great memories of freezing my butt off sitting in Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA and in Jordan-Hare Stadium watching the Tigers and the Dawgs do battle. Thanks to UGA's last season swoon, the Triple Dave combo will get the pleasure of broadcasting the game on LF Sports. Georgia comes in reeling....and I mean really reeling to the tune of having lost 4 of their last 5 games. To be honest, Georgia should be losers of five straight games, but the Dawg defense saved the day late in the game against Mississippi State. In spite of their struggles, Georgia is a very talented team. Auburn is likewise very talented and just continues to win games without any style, just substance. UGA QB Matthew Stafford is learning on the job as a freshman, and his 12 interceptions show just how much he is learning. Fortunately for Stafford, he is going up against an Auburn defense that does not intercept a lot of passes and will be without starting safety (and hero of the LSU game) Eric Brock. The early kickoff and the strange history of this series (see the Quero Veritas blog for an overview) indicates that this could be a long day for the home team...and you've got to believe that sooner or later Georgia is not going to turn the ball over 4 or 5 times in a game. It'll be an upset in Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday....Georgia 17 Auburn 13

South Carolina at #6 Florida - Of course, the storyline is Steve Spurrier returning the Swamp to take on his alma mater, and that's the reason this game was given the coveted CBS 3:30pm EST timeslot. Based on South Carolina's previous outings against highly ranked competition, you can see why the CBS folks believe that this will be a good game. South Carolina has come oh so close to three major upsets this year, including last week's failed comeback against Arkansas. If you add in Florida's overall poor play since the second half of the Auburn game a few weeks, ago, this game would seem to have upset written all over it...but South Carolina still has quarterback issues, and the Gator faithful are going to be extremely loud with its team back in the national title race with Louisville's loss on Thursday night. I don't think Urban Meyer will have any problems putting up style points against the Ole Ball Coach...Florida 31 South Carolina 13

#13 Tennessee at #11 Arkansas - Should Auburn manage to defeat Georgia early on Saturday afternoon, the orange and blue faithful will be paying close attention to the events transpiring in Arkansas on Saturday night. Tennessee QB Erik Ainge is out, and redshirt freshmen Jonathan Crompton will be leading the Vols offense into Fayetteville. Musical quarterbacks is not unique to the Vols as Houston Nutt has put Casey Dick at QB for the Razorbacks. For both Tennessee and Arkansas, their new quarterbacks overall played well in their respective first games, but for Crompton, this will be his first test on the road in the SEC. Did I mention that this game was at night too? It is going to be loud and Arkansas defensive coordinator Reggie Herring is going to throw everything he can at Crompton. Up until last week, LSU had an anemic rushing offense, but against the Vols defense, LSU put up 231 yards on the ground and averaged over 5 yards per carry - and LSU has nowhere as good as McFadden and Felix Jones. The Arkansas running game is the difference here...Arkansas 21 Tennessee 10

And now predictions for other games this week....

#7 USC 38 #21 Oregon 28
#8 California 31 Arizona 14
#9 Notre Dame 35 Air Force 17
#10 West Virginia 24 Cincinnati 10
#12 LSU 31 Alabama 7
#14 Boise State 38 San Jose State 21
Iowa 17 #16 Wisconsin 14
#17 Oklahoma 35 Texas Tech 17
Florida State 17 #18 Wake Forest 16
#19 Georgia Tech 30 North Carolina 10
#20 Virginia Tech 42 Kent State 14
#22 Boston College 34 Duke 7
#23 Maryland 16 Miami(FL) 14
Nebraska 24 #25 Texas A&M 20
Kentucky 24 Vanderbilt 17
Clemson 42 North Carolina State 13
Michigan State 31 Minnesota 28
Houston 35 Southern Methodist 14
Oregon State 27 UCLA 21
Washington State 31 Arizona State 20
South Florida 20 Syrcause 10

Note: Through 3 weeks of making predictions, season record is: 66-16 (0.805)

College Football - Week 10 Review

Random Musings on Week 10

Editors Note: Special thanks to the last truly great American rock bands, Guns 'n Roses, for providing the titles for each of this week's musings....if only Axl Rose would reunite with the band's original lineup for a true G 'n R tour!

1. It's So Easy - Underdogs have always been dear to my heart. I'm the guy during March Madness who is dying to pick upset after upset. So, part of me loves seeing what the Big East Conference is doing this college football season. As a Big East basketball fan (HOYA SAXA!), I want to see the Big East continue to succeed as a football conference...BUT, the champion of the Big East should not be allowed to play for the BCS Title Game over a 1 loss team from the SEC or even the Big 12. I watched the Louisville-West Virginia game from start to finish this past Thursday evening, and I enjoyed watching the high octane offenses, but great football teams have a good, if not great, defense. Neither of these two Big East powers have any defense at all, much less a good or great one. The road to the BCS championship is so easy in the Big East, especially when your two most difficult conference road trips are to New Brunswick, NJ and Pittsburgh, PA. For the good of the college football season, I'm going to put my love of underdogs on hold for a few months so that I can cheer for a 1 loss team from the SEC or the Big 12...or even the Pac 10...to play the Ohio State-Michigan winner in Glendale, Arizona.

2. Out Ta Get Me - The boys running the now famous KeepMikeShula.com website are having to work overtime these days to continue their grass roots campaign to keep Mike Shula as the head coach for the University of Alabama. The natives are getting restless after Mississippi State went into Tuscaloosa and left with a 24-16 victory. Sure, losing to any 2-7 team is going to upset the fanbase, but when that fanbase is known for throwing a brick through the head coach's office window, you know that they are truly out to get you when you lose to a team that has been outscored 158 to 72 by conference opponents this season and had not won a conference road game in six years. In the debacle that transpired in Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon, the Alabama offense was held without a touchdown for the second straight year by the Mississippi State defense. The Mississippi State defense has now scored more touchdowns than the Alabama offense in the last two meetings between these SEC bottom feeders. Can the Bama program sink in lower? Well, two straight losses against LSU and Auburn could send the once feared Alabama program to a new low...not going to a bowl game even when it is bowl eligible. Shula might want to start looking for moving companies..or at least a security detail.

3. Paradise City - June Jones just continues to light up scoreboards in Hawaii each year. I wasn't sure if anyone could run Jones's run-n-shoot offense better than Hawaii legend Timmy Chang, but Jones has found another quarterback who might even be better than Chang. The college football world knows the name of the Colt quarterbacking the University of Texas, but true college football fans know that the best Colt starting at quarterback may reside in the paradise of Hawaii. Junior Colt Brennan shattered the single season Hawaii touchdown pass record of 38 set by Timmy Chang in 2004 with this six touchdown performance against Utah State on Saturday. Brennan is second in the nation in passing yardage per game with a total of 372 yards per game and leads the nation in total offense with an average of 395 yards per game. Hawaii has already accepted a bowl bid to play in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, and with a Pac-10 opponent, Brennan will have the opportunity to show the nation just what he can do. Hopefully, his regular season stats will be enough to earn him a trip to New York City for the Heisman awards ceremony.

4. Dead Horse - I'm going to beat the infamous dead horse on this blog....and that dead horse is that the Big 10 is not a good football conference. The media has been hyping the collision course that Michigan and Ohio State are on, and after both teams nearly were victims of monumental upsets on Saturday, the Big 10 biased media went into spin mode by saying that "great teams have to win games like this in November". But when those games are against a Ron Zook coached Illinois team and a middle of the pack Mid American Conference team, then there is cause for concern. For Ohio State, a failed on-side kick attempt by Illinois sealed a 17-10 road victory, while Michigan survived two passes into the endzone in the final seconds of its contest against Ball State to survive with the 34-26 victory at home. All season long, Troy Smith and the Buckeye offense has been praised as unstoppable, and Troy Smith is widely considered as the leading Heisman candidate, but against the best defense it has faced since Texas in the second game of the year, the Buckeye offense was held in check. As for Michigan, the #4 ranked defense in the country held Ball State to only 297 yards of total offense, but Chad Henne and the Michigan offense gave the Cardinals 9 points early in the game. Great teams do have letdowns from time to time, but not against teams like Illinois and Ball State. Neither one of these teams is a great team, and being a conference where they would actually be challenged on the road would prove that.

5. Patience - Kentucky fans were ready to send head coach Rich Brooks back into retirement last season after the Wildcats had only won 9 games in his first three seasons in Lexington. This year did not start any better from Brooks with a 31 point loss to in-state rival Louisville. However, Brooks has been able to turn things around in his third season behind the strong arm of junior quarterback Andre' Woodson, and on Saturday, Brooks got the signature win of his tenure at Kentucky when the Wildcats shocked Georgia 24-20 in Commonwealth Stadium. The Wildcats just need one win in its final three games to ensure itself of its first bowl appearance since the 1999 Music City Bowl when Kentucky fell to the Syracuse Orangemen. With Vanderbilt and LA-Monroe being two of the final three games for Kentucky, one more win seems likely, and the patience shown by the Kentucky administration to keep Rich Brooks will have been rewarded with a long awaited bowl game.

6. 14 Years - It is time to welcome a new member to the elite of the ACC, and that member is Wake Forest. The Demon Decaons had last won 8 games in a season in 1992 - 14 years ago -when Bill Dooley lead Wake Forset to an 8-4 record and a berth in the Independence Bowl. Jim Grobe has already reached that the 8 game win total in just 9 games this season, and although the remaining schedule is formidable (at Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, at Maryland), the Demon Deacons have proven that they are a legit ACC program after its 21-14 victory over Boston College on Saturday. The victory of Boston College was Wake Forest's first win over a ranked team in 9 tries and put the Demon Deacons in the driver's seat for a berth in the ACC Championship game in Jacksonville. All of this for a team that lost its starting quarterback and All-ACC running back prior to the start of the season. I doubt that Wake Forest will reach the ACC Championship game due to their difficult upcoming schedule, but this has been a truly remarkable year for the Demon Deacons and Jim Grobe has established himself as one of the more underrated coaches in college football. I wonder just how long Jim Grobe will be on the sidelines in Winston-Salem, NC after this remarkable season.

7. You Could Be Mine - The rumors are flying that the University of North Carolina has Butch Davis at the top of its head coaching wish list. Davis has a stellar 51-20 record as a college head coach and won a national championship at the University of Miami. He truly returned the Hurricane program to its elite status before leaving for the NFL. So I can understand the Tar Heels waiting to land the former Miami head coach. The question is...would Butch Davis really consider going to Chapel Hill? Sure, the Research Triangle is great place to live, and money won't be an issue for a school like North Carolina, but Davis is not going to win a national title at North Carolina. Unless the Alabama job opens up due to Mike Shula being fired, it doesn't appear that there will be too many high profile head coaching vacancies in college football for Davis to consider because he won't be a candidate for the Miami job when Larry Coker is fired. Is the North Carolina job really good enough for a guy like Butch Davis? Is the Michigan State or maybe the Iowa State job acceptable? If I were Davis, I'd wait one more year and see what opens up after the 2007 season.

8. Knockin' On Heaven's Door - The University of Ohio Bobcat football program has not reached the promised land of a bowl game since 1968. With its 16-10 victory over Eastern Michigan, Ohio has reached the 7 win mark on the season and solidified its lead in the Eastern Division of the MAC. With 2 games left in the season, Ohio has a one game lead over Kent State and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even if the Bobcats somehow manage to miss the MAC Championship Game, there are enough bowl tie-ins for the MAC that Frank Solich's program should be playing well into December. Not only is this a great success story for the Ohio football program, but also for Frank Solich, who in my opinion was unfairly forced out of the head coaching position at Nebraska because he had the unenviable task of following legendary coach Tom Osborne. With the Bobcats' success on the football field this season, Solich has erased memories of his November 2005 drunk driving arrest and established himself as a hot commodity in the coaching ranks. His name has been mentioned for the North Carolina head coaching position, but he claims he has not actually considered taking the job. Michigan State would be wise to give Solich a call...or maybe a return to the Big 12 should Iowa State fire Dan McCarney would be a good move for Solich. This season has been a return to glory for Ohio football and Frank Solich, and now both are knocking on the door of playing football in December, which is the heaven of college football.

9. Civil War - Dirk Koetter may not survive this college football season. Some media pundits are calling the Arizona State Sun Devils one of the biggest busts of the college football season, and Coach Koetter has no one to blame but himself after the civil war he started in the preseason over the starting quarterback. Koetter named senior quarterback Sam Keller the starting quarterback during summer practice only to reverse his decision two days later after a meeting with some of his players. Rudy Carpenter was then named the starting quarterback, and Keller ended up transferring to Nebraska. Koetter's inability to stand behind his decision indicated his lack of leadership, and the civil war that ensued in the Arizona State locker room after Keller was named the starting quarterback should have indicated that this was going to be a season of huge disappointment for Sun Devil fans. Arizona State needs only one more win this season to qualify for its third straight bowl game, but with upcoming games against Washington State, UCLA, and Arizona, getting one more win is not going to be easy...and Arizona State fans are going to look back at Koetter's decision over the starting quarterback in August and wonder what this season could have actually turned into for the Sun Devils.

And now, one man's attempt to rank the Top 25 teams in the country...

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Louisville
5. Auburn
6. Florida
7. Southern Cal
8. Arkansas
9. California
10. West Virginia
11. Notre Dame
12. LSU
13. Rutgers
14. Boise State
15. Tennessee
16. Wisconsin
17. Wake Forest
18. Oklahoma
19. Georgia Tech
20. Virginia Tech
21. Oregon
22. Maryland
23. Boston College
24. Texas A&M
25. Clemson

Updated Bowl Projections - through Week 10

Well, the big boys of the college football world all survived this week....except for West Virginia. The Mountaineers were victims of a 'black out' in Louisville on Thursday night, and now, Bobby Petrino and the Cardinals are on the road to Glendale. In addition to a shakeup in the national title race, upsets in conference play shook up the bowl picture. Losses by Alabama, Georgia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Missouri, Indiana, and Washington State have complicated the bowl picture.

So, here are this week's bowl projections...and remember, these projections are not the kind of projections based 'if the season ended today'. Rather, the Total System Failure bowl projections are based on how I see the rest of the year playing out.

Notes:

Teams labeled with a '*' indicate teams being selected for a bowl game due to a conference not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Teams labeled with a '^' indicates a team that has already accepted a bowl bid.

Poinsetta Bowl (MWC #2/3 vs. At-Large): Utah vs. Northern Illinois*
Las Vegas Bowl (Pac-10 #4 vs. MWC #1): Washington State vs. Brigham Young
New Orleans Bowl (Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA): Middle Tennessee State vs. East Carolina
New Mexico Bowl (MWC #4 vs. WAC): New Mexico vs. San Jose State
Birmingham Bowl (MAC/Big East vs. C-USA): Cincinnati vs. Southern Miss
Armed Forces Bowl (MWC #2/3 vs. C-USA #4): Texas Christian vs. SMU
Hawaii Bowl (Pac-10 #6 vs WAC): Arizona State vs. Hawaii^
Motor City Bowl (MAC vs. Big 10 #7): Ohio vs. Oklahoma State*
Emerald Bowl (ACC #4/5 vs. Pac-10 #4/5): Boston College vs. Oregon State
Independence Bowl (Big 12 #7/8 vs. SEC #8): Kansas State vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Big 12 vs. Big East/C-USA): Texas Tech vs. South Florida
Holiday Bowl (Pac-10 #2 vs. Big 12 #3): Southern California vs. Texas A&M
Champs Sports Bowl (Big 10 #4/5 vs. ACC #4): Purdue vs. Virginia Tech
Music City Bowl (SEC #6 vs. ACC #5/6): Kentucky vs. Miami(FL)
Sun Bowl (Big 12/Big East vs. Pac-10 #3): Oregon vs. Rutgers
Insight Bowl (Big 12 #4/5 vs. Big 10 #6): Missouri vs. Indiana
Alamo Bowl (Big 12 #4/5 vs. Big 10 #4/5): Nebraska vs. Iowa
Liberty Bowl (C-USA #1 vs. SEC): Houston vs. South Carolina
Meineke Car Care Bowl (Big East/Navy vs. ACC #5/6): Navy vs. Wake Forest
Chik-Fil-A Bowl (ACC #2 vs. SEC #5): Maryland vs. Georgia
MPC Computers Bowl (WAC vs. ACC #8): Nevada vs. Florida State
Gator Bowl (ACC #3 vs. Big 12/Big East): Clemson vs. West Virginia
Cotton Bowl (SEC vs. Big 12 #2): Arkansas vs. Oklahoma
Outback Bowl (SEC vs. Big 10 #3): Tennessee vs. Penn State
Capital One Bowl (SEC vs. Big 10 #2): LSU vs. Wisconsin
International Bowl (MAC #3 vs. Big East #4/5): Western Michigan vs. Pittsburgh
GMAC Bowl (C-USA #2 vs. MAC): Tulsa vs. Central Michigan

Rose Bowl: California vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Auburn
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Florida
BCS Title Game: Louisville vs. Ohio State