Thursday, October 19, 2006

College Football - Week 8 Predictions

Week 8 of the college football season officially began tonight...well, if you can call an ESPN Thursday battle of the sorrys (Virginia vs. North Carolina) a real football game. As I have sat here flipping between this poor excuse for ACC football and Game 7 of the NLCS, I have decided to start a new tradition on the Total System Failure blog....college football predictions.

So, screw the Harmon Forecast...this is the Total System Failure forecast, baby!

Game of the Week - #13 Georgia Tech at #12 Clemson

The ESPN GameDay circus makes the trek up Interstate 85 from Auburn to Clemson, SC...which is fondly referred to as "Auburn on a Lake". As a child, I went to many Clemson games with my elementary school classmate Joe Tyson so I know firsthand what the environment in Death Valley is like for a showndown on national television. I really didn't have much of an opinion on Clemson this season after the graduation of Charlie Whitehurst, but Will Proctor has stepped in and played fantastic football, which can be rather easy when you've got CJ Spiller and James Davis to carry the football. While Will Proctor has been steady for the Tigers, Georgia Tech Reggie Ball has been spectacular this season. Ball's completion percentage is around 51 percent, and he has only thrown 5 interceptions this season. Of course, it is easy to have a good year at quarterback when Calvin Johnson is hauling in the majority of the passes.

The real key to this game will be the Georgia Tech defense. Can Jon Tenuta devise a gameplan to slow down the Clemson running attack and the unpredictable nature of Rob Spence's offense? I look for Spence to use CJ Spiller and James Davis out of the backfield to slow down the speed and quickness of the Jacket defense. Calvin Johnson is going to make big plays - that's a given - but I just have a gut feeling that Reggie Ball cannot continue to keep up his solid play. He has been too inconsistent for 4 years of the flats to all of a sudden turn it around...god, I hope that I'm wrong about this....Clemson 27 Georgia Tech 13

#4 West Virginia at Connecticut - I've spent a lot of my life working in labs, conducting experiments, and occassionally blowing things up during those experiments...and we're all going to witness an explosion of the rushing variety on Friday night when Steve Slaton and Pat White go up against the #105 ranked rushing defense...West Virginia 45 Connecticut 13

Indiana at #1 Ohio State - I'm really pulling for Indiana to pull off big upsets in back to back weeks, but unfortunately for Coach Hoeppner and the Hoosiers, Drew Tate isn't the quarterback for the Buckeyes...Ohio State 56 Indiana 17

Iowa at #2 Michigan - Some might predict that this could be where Michigan slips up before the rapidly approaching Ohio State game at the end of November...obviously, those people have forgotten that Drew Tate is the quarterback for the Hawkeyes...Michigan 27 Iowa 7

# 5 Texas at #17 Nebraska - Colt McCoy has yet to pull a true road game as the quarterback for the University of Texas, and Lincoln, Nebraska is not an easy place to lose your road virginity. The Cornhuskers do bring a 6-1 record into Saturday's game, but the best win of those six came against a 4-3 Kansas State team. The Cornhuskers are getting too much credit for their 'close' loss to USC. I don't think the Texas offense will light up the scoreboard, but the vaunted Texas run defense should be solid enough to hold off the Cornhuskers...Texas 17 Nebraska 13

#6 Louisville at Syracuse - I actually was starting to believe that the Orangemen were really on the road to respectability again. Then, I watched the second half of the West Virginia game this past Saturday. How any Division 1-A football team can give up 457 yards on the ground to a conference opponent is beyond comprehension? And that is just what Syracuse did last week against West Virginia. Oh yeah, Brian Brohm is back for Louisville - this is a blowout...Louisville 63 Syracuse 10

Alabama at #7 Tennessee - It is the third Saturday in October, so it has got to be time for the Crimson Tide and the Vols to battle it out on the gridiron. Last week, we started to see some life in Alabama running back Ken Darby, but of course, that was against Ole Miss. I know this is a rivalry game, and it should be a close one. But I just cannot help but recall that Ole Miss got spanked by Wake Forest at home and then it took Alabama overtime to hold off the Rebs in Tuscaloosa. You aren't supposed to compare teams and games like that when making picks, but when it comes to a Mike Shula coached team, it will work....Tennessee 27 Alabama 13

Tulane at #8 Auburn - Auburn and Tulane haven't played a football game since 1955, and I don't think this contest will inspire much nostaglia. Auburn will certainly come out flat, and I believe that Tulane will hang around for much of the first half. How Auburn is a 30 plus point favorite, I'll never understand. Even though the Green Wave is ranked 115th in scoring defense, the Tiger offense under the direction of Al Borges has not exactly set the world on fire, and yet again, the Tigers will settle for field goals on several drives. Auburn should use its depth to pull away in the second half, but the Tigers won't cover the spread...Auburn 37 Tulane 14

And now predictions for other games this week:

#10 Notre Dame 42 UCLA 17
#11 California 38 Washington 13
#14 LSU 49 Fresno State 14
#15 Arkansas 28 Ole Miss 7
#16 Oregon 24 Washington State 23
#18 Boise State 52 Idaho 14
Pittsburgh 21 #19 Rutgers 20
#20 Oklahoma 35 Colorado 6
Purdue 17 #21 Wisconsin 13
Florida State 16 #22 Boston College 10
#24 Missouri 28 Kansas State 17
Miami(FL) 48 Duke 7
Nevada 38 San Jose State 24
Virginia Tech 27 Southern Miss 24
Southern Methodist 21 East Carolina 14
Houston 45 UTEP 35
TCU 38 Army 14
Georgia 28 Mississippi State 0
South Carolina 24 Vanderbilt 14
Texas Tech 31 Iowa State 20




Total System Failure's Preseason Top 25 Basketball Rankings (Part 2)

After ranking the #20 to 25 teams in the country earlier this week, I now move to ranking the #15 to #19 teams in the Total System Failure Preseason Top 25....and if you thought there were some surprises in the first part of the rankings, I can assure you that more surprises are ahead!

19. Syracuse - Personally, I am so glad that Gerry McNamara is only longer playing for the 'Cuse...mainly because he was one of the most overhyped players in college basketball last season and that the fact his own head coach had to come to his defense in a press conference to prove that he isn't overrated. McNamara had a special run in the 2006 Big East Tournament, but fortunately for all non-Syrcause college basketball fans, his senior season came to an end with a thud against Texas A&M in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. While losing McNamara may concern some 'Cuse fans, I actually believe that Syracuse will be better with freshman Paul Harris running the show. With a returning cast of Eric Devendorf, Demetrius Nichols, and Terrence Roberts, the Orangemen have plenty of offensive firepower on the perimeter and wing, but there is not much a low post presence for Jim Boeheim's squad. Center Darryl Watkins is going to have to step up, or Arinze Onuaku will be heavily relied upon. With Harris leading the Orangemen this year and a solid returning cast, Syrcause should push for an upper division finish in the Big East and a NCAA Tournament berth.

18. Virginia - When Jeff Lebo was hired as the Auburn head basketball coach two years ago, the man I openly supported and wanted on the Plains was former DePaul head coach Dave Leitao. Leitao spent too many years working with Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun to have not learned how to create a winner. Just look at what he did for DePaul basketball following the Pat Kennedy debacle...and now, look at what he is prepared to do for Virginia basketball after the Pete Gillen era. The Cavaliers are going to surprise a lot of teams in the ACC this year. To be a good college basketball team, you have got to have a strong backcourt, and Leitao may have the best backcourt in the ACC with J.R. Reynolds and Sean Singletary. Both Reynolds and Singletary averaged over 17 points per game last year and over 3 assists per game. There is no doubt that these two guys can play, but for Virginia to make a Sweet 16 run, the Cavaliers will need some frontcourt help. 6'10" senior Jason Cain, 6'11" junior Tunji Soroye, and 6'9" Penn transfer Ryan Pettinella are going to be counted on to provide some muscle in the paint. Even though the Cavalier big men have a lot to prove, there is strength in numbers as Leitao has 6 players taller than 6'8" on the roster. Cavalier basketball is back...and the nation will find out just how back it is when March rolls around.

17. Creighton - Dana Altman has built quite a program in Omaha, Nebraska, and to fuel the fire for his squad this year, he has the heartbreak of last season to use for motivation. The Blue Jays won 20 games last season, but failed to make the NCAA Tournament and had to settle for the NIT. With Nate Funk back for Coach Altman's team, the Blue Jays should be able to punch their ticket to the Big Dance this year. As always, the Creighton backcourt is loaded with savvy, intelligent, sharp shooting guards. In addition to Funk (and as an aside, everytime I hear his name called, I think of former announcer Todd Christiansen saying.."You gotta give 'em a little funk", but I digress...), Creighton will have Nick Porter, Josh Dotzier, Pierce Hibma, and Kansas transfer Nick Bahe to provide plenty of options. Of course, the key to Creighton's success will be their post players. The Blue Jays aren't blessed with great size in the post, and 6'9" center Anthony Tolliver and 6'8" forward Dane Watts are going to have to stay out of foul trouble and provide strong interior defense and rebounding. When March rolls around, we're going to be hearing a lot about Dana Altman's Creighton team...the Blue Jays could be a serious Cinderalla candidate when the Big Dance starts.

16. Memphis - The last time the nation got to watch the Memphis Tigers play basketball was one of the most excuriating games to watch of the 2006 NCAA Tournament as UCLA defeated Memphis 50-45 in the regional final. Memphis only scored 45 points in the shot clock era of college basketball and when Princeton wasn't the opponent! That truly was one boring game to watch, despite the close score. Although the Tigers lost Rodney Carney, Darius Washington, and Shawne Williams to the NBA draft, Coach John Calipari should have enough talent in the returning players and his strong recruiting class to earn a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Carney, Washington, and Williams accounted for 53 percent of the Tigers offense last year, and it will be up to sophomore Antonio Anderson, junior Joey Dorsey, and sophomore Chris Douglas-Roberts to assert themselves as the leaders of this Memphis squad. Each of these three veterans bring something different to the table - Anderson is the long range bomber, Dorsey is the force in the paint, and Douglas-Roberts is the penetrator and slasher. With two pass-first point guards in junior Andre Allen and freshman Willie Kemp, the Memphis offense should pick up where it left off from last season (the UCLA game being the exception!). While the Memphis offense reloads, it will be the trademark Calipari suffocating, pressure defense that will lead the Tigers until the offense is clicking, and once the offense is potent, a deep run in March is a distinct possibility.

15. Wisconsin - It takes a lot to make me watch a Wisconsin Badger basketball game. Badger basketball under Coach Bo Ryan isn't all that exciting, and I'm a huge fan of Big East basketball which is known for more defense than offense. Maybe it's just all the big white guys with last names I cannot pronouce?...whatever the reason, this year, I'm going to watch more Wisconsin basketball because anytime a team returns 90 percent of their offense, 93 percent of their rebounding, and 87 percent of the minutes played from a NCAA Tournament team that advanced to the second round, there is promise for the next year. With those kind of statistics returning, you would think that the Badgers would be destined for a preseason Top 10 ranking, but I recall Wisconsin going 1-5 during a key stretch last February, so I'm not sold on all the returning parts of the Badger machine. What I am sold on is 6'6" senior forward Alando Tucker and his 19 points per game. Tucker's all-around game will make the Badgers a force in the Big 10 Conference this year. Add in the return of 6'2" senior three point marksmen Kammron Taylor and the vastly improved 6'11" center Brian Btuch, and the Badgers have a solid three-pronged attack. As always, the Badgers have plenty of size - there are 7 players on the roster 6'7" and taller - and the Badgers will play tough defense. The real question mark that is keeping me from ranking the Badgers higher is the point guard position. True freshman Trevon Hughes really needs to step into the point guard role for the Badgers, and if he is successful, the road to Atlanta may start in Madison, Wisconsin.

Be looking for the #10 to #14 ranked teams in the Total System Failure Preseason Top 25 later this week...stay tuned!

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

The Worst KISS Songs of All-Time

My parents have no one to blame but themselves for my infatuation with the rock group, KISS. By sending me to my grandparents' farm every summer, I spent a lot of time with my cousins who were in high school while I was just an elementary school kid. I remember the night I first discovered the artistry of KISS's music - my cousin Mike and two of his buddies were taking me to see the original Batman movie, and they were listening to the latest KISS tape, "Smashes, Thrashes, and Hits". They must have played "Heaven's on Fire" and "Calling Dr. Love" about ten times that night, and on that evening, I became a KISS fan. Granted my parents tried to combat my love for KISS music when they confiscated all of my KISS tapes and CDs in high school because of their influence on me, but the damage was done...I was already a KISS fan.

This coming Saturday night at the Tabernacle in Atlanta, I will get to experience a first in my time as a member of the KISS Army. I will get to see a Paul Stanley solo show. I've seen KISS in concert 5 times, but never Paul Stanley by himself. Paul Stanley is going on his first solo tour since 1989 to support his first solo album since each member of KISS released a solo album on the same day in October 1978. Since I'm dragging my poor wife to this concert and she has voiced her opinion on the quality of KISS's music, I began to ponder just what the ten worst KISS of all-time were. The obvious answer to many would be that they are all terrible, but not to the members of the KISS Army. Many members of the KISS Army would argue that any of the 1980s songs released by KISS are among the worst, but I have an affinity for hair metal, so those songs are not automatically on my list. And just to be fair, none of the songs from any of the 1978 KISS solo albums were considered for this list, because this list would be flooded with Peter Criss songs.

So, I now present the 10 worst KISS songs of all-time:

10. "Hooligan" from the Love Gun album - Peter Criss really didn't want to be a member of KISS. He really wanted to be a poor man's Rod Stewart. His drumming skills leave a lot to be desired, and his solo album showed that he and the rest of the members of KISS were not on the same wavelength. No wonder his stints with the band since the glory days of the 1970s have been so shortlived! But back to "Hooligan"....how do you follow up a great song like "Love Gun" and precede a classic Gene Simmons song like "Almost Human" with a cheesey 1970s pop song? The one line in particular that irks me is - "I went down to the candy store. If I had a nicklel, I'd buy some more." WHAT??? WHAT?? If you really were a hooligan, you'd just steal the damn candy, Peter! If this song wasn't on the Love Gun album, then it would probably be ranked higher (or lower depending on how you look at) on this list, but it is saved by the overall strong work on Love Gun.

9. "Raise Your Glasses" from the Psycho Circus album - I think that KISS did a poor job on naming the Psycho Circus album. It really should have been Trying to Create Cheesy Rock Anthems Circus. Between "I Pledge Allegiance to the State of Rock 'n Roll", "You Wanted the Best", "Psycho Circus", and "Raise Your Glasses", you could tell that KISS was just throwing together an album of fluff to generate more buzz after their reunion tour. Of all the wannabe rock anthems included on the album, "Raises Your Glasses" wins the award for the worst. The song just opens up with pure Paul Stanley cheese - "I took a ride with a one-way ticket. I aimed my arrow at the mark and hit it. We all need to be somebody." What's frightening is that the song only gets worse from there.

8. "All Hell's Breakin' Loose" from the Lick It Up album - Deborah Harry of Blondie started a very bad musical trend when she took a shot at rapping on the classic Blondie track "Rapture". A blonde, white woman rapping about aliens from Mars opened the flood gates for all white rock stars to see if they can keep a beat. Unfortunately, the white rock rapping fever was caught by Paul Stanley when KISS released its first sans makeup album. Lick It Up returned KISS to being a band that actually mattered in the 1980s (at least for a few years), but listening to Paul Stanley talking to a beat (a la the original white rapped Tony Bennett) is one reason that the Lick It Up album stays in its CD case and not actually in my CD player. The line "Hey, hey, have you read the news? All Hell's Breakin' Loose" is pathetic...fortunately for KISS, the unique, apocalyptic video associated with this song gives it some credibility.

7. "Burn Bitch Burn" from the Animalize album - Gene Simmons has never been recognized for his ability to generate witty, creative euphemisms for sex. Unfortunately, for KISS fans, he hit rock bottom in "Burn Bitch Burn".

"Well it's out of the fryin' pan and into the fire
You bent over, baby, and let me be the driver
Just a cut of pink, wouldn't believe me if I told you
But this time you bit off more than you can chew
My my, yeah, just listen to this, babe
I got nasty habits, it's a fine line,
So many girls and so little time
When love rears its head, I wanna get on your case
Ooh baby, wanna put my log in your fireplace"

Did he really say that he wanted to put his log in her fireplace? Did he really talk about a frying pan? Rock 'n roll is about sex...but this is like a junior high kid talking about sex...not a man who has slept with more woman the entire midtown Atlanta male population combined! Those lyrics make Paul Stanley singing about pulling the trigger of his 'love gun' poetry!

6. "Baby Driver" from the Rock 'n Roll Over album - Yet another crappy Peter Criss song on a classic KISS album. It's amazing the lengths that Gene Simmons and Paul Stanley had to go to keep Peter Criss happy. Honestly, I'm not even sure that this song is even about...at least on other Peter Criss songs, you can figure out what the theme or motif is...but "Baby Driver" does not seem to have one. At one point in the song, Criss belts out the following verse:

"Nobody knows where you're goin'
Nobody cares where you been
And if you want to hear some stories
Exit girl, we'll let you in"

"Baby Driver" is a song that is going nowhere and no one cares about it...and if I want to hear some stories, I'll hit skip on the CD player to go to a better song on the Rock 'n Roll Over album!

5. "2,000 Man" from the Dynasty album - It is probably blasphemous to put a song written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards on any list of worst songs...but when it comes to "2,000 Man", the ranking is undeniably deserved. Typically, I am a big fan of any KISS song featuring Ace Frehley, and I actually enjoy the albums in the late 1970s (Dynasty and Unmasked) where Ace was heavily featured. I realize the infatuation with space that Ace Frehley has always had...so I can tolerate him indulging his space-related fantasies, but this song just goes too far. The song contains all of the 1970s stereotypes of what life would be like in the 21st century ("Well, my name is a number"; "I'm having an affair with a random computer", and other idiotic notions). Even going beyond those stereotypes of the 21st century, the song just doesn't make any sense...and to be honest, is just stupid. The following lyrics should illustrate the stupidity of this song:

"Oh daddy, proud of your planet

Oh mommy. proud of your sun

Oh daddy, your brain's still flashin'"

If anyone reading this blog can explain to me what in the hell Ace Frehley is singing about in those lines, you'll be my new hero.

4. "No, No, No" from the Crazy Nights album - During the late 1980s, it was readily apparent that Gene Simmons was not focused on producing quality KISS albums. In fact, I do not think a focused Gene Simmons would have even let the Hot in the Shade album be released, but prior to that forgettable KISS album, the group released an 80s pop metal album entitled Crazy Nights. While I actually really like the Crazy Nights album, the one song on the album that makes me skin crawl is the Simmons authored "No, No, No"...of course, there is a sweet Bruce Kulick guitar intro, but the lyrics Simmons penned for this son ruin the killer intro. It is almost like Simmons is trying to channel Roger Daltry from the Who song "My Generation" with his stuttering during parts of the song.Too bad that Gene wasn't off working on another movie with Tom Selleck (see the classic "Runaway") when it was time to record "No, No, No".

3. "Cadillac Dreams" from the Hot in the Shade album - Money always seem to be a theme in rock 'n roll. When bands are first starting out, it is very common for them to talk about wanting money. Hell, the excess associated with money is what 80s glam rock was all about! But there is something just a little absurd about a well-established, well marketed band with more cash in the bank than Donald Trump singing about having "Cadillac Dreams". Maybe if KISS had recorded this song in 1975 when each member of KISS was almost anoxeric because they did not have money for food, then this song might not make this Top 10 list...but hearing an over 40 year old Gene Simmons telling us that "Yeah, I want money, money, that's all I need. I got Cadillac Dreams. Hey Mister, you can't take that from me." is beyond ridiculous. Gene doesn't have "Cadillac Dreams" any more than I have dreams about my old 1988 Chevy Celebrity.

2. "Dance All Over Your Face" from the Lick It Up album - If you didn't know what album this song was off of, you'd probably assume it was off the widely disliked KISS disco album, Dynasty. But no, this rocker was released on the Lick It Up. I realize that this is the second song from a highly successfuly KISS album, and I do really like the Lick It Up album, but "Dance All Over Your Face" has to be ranked in the Top 10 worst KISS songs of all-time. I understand what Gene Simmons was trying to accompish with this song...but there are better ways to voice your displeasure about a woman cheating on (see Ted Nugent's classic "Strangehold") than to sing the following lines:

"Yes, I saw you with another man
And you put me in disgrace, so
Dance, dance all over your face
I'm going dance all over your face"

That sounds like something you'd hear Gloria Gaynor belting out in a 1970s disco. This is coming from the mouth of the man who created glam rock...the man who spit blood....the man who plays a battleax bass....the man who has slept with over 10,000 women...the man we all know as "The Demon"! Gene Simmons cannot talk about dancing...period, ever!


1. Any song on the Music from the Elder album - This entire album is a tragedy...not only was this the first KISS album to fail to earn any record certification in the United States, but this was the last record featuring Ace Frehley. The fact that KISS even recorded a 'concept' album is what is beyond belief. I think Gene Simmons summed up this album the best when he said: "As a KISS album, I'd give it a zero. As a bad Genesis record, I'd give it a two." Freakin' Lou Reed was a co-writer of the only single from the album ("A World Without Heroes"). To go even further than having the audacity to have Lou Reed contribute to a KISS album, Anton Fig also played a larger role in the creation of this concept album...and yes, that Anton Fig...the one who was the drummer on David Letterman for years. If you really want to punish yourself, you can read more about this collosal blunder in KISS-tory here. Take my advice...just accept that this whole album sucks and go listen to the Destroyer album.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Total System Failure's Preseason Top 25 Basketball Rankings (Part 1)

It's hard to believe, but the start of the college basketball season is already upon us. This past Friday evening, college basketball practices across the country began as over 300 plus D-1 teams started on the Road to the Final Four.

As many readers of the Inside the Auburn Tigers message boards already know, college basketball is a passion of mine, and the rest of the world will get a small test of that passion as I blog about the 2006-2007 college basketball season. And what better way to start the season with the inaugural Total System Failure Top 25 rankings. Over the next few days, I'll be ranking the teams in 5 team increments. So to start the season off right, here are teams 20 to 25.

25. Villanova - Last season, Coach Jay Wright rode a potent three guard attack to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a deep tourney run that ended in the Elite 8 with an loss to eventual national champion Florida. Unfortunately, for Coach Wright, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry, and Allen Ray are all known contributing to the preseason camps of various NBA franchises. So how does Villanova recover from losing approximately 63 percent of its offense to the NBA? The burden will surely fall on a highly regarded recruiting class (lead by McDonalds All-American Scottie Reynolds) and returning veterans G Mike Nardi and Fs Curtis Sumpter and Will Sheridan. Sheridan has the most potential of the returning players to blossom into a major force for the Wildcats. With the talent level in the Big East dropping off this year, the Wildcats should be able to challenge for an upper division finish and mid-range seed (#6 to #9) in the 2007 NCAA Tournament.

24. Nevada - The day that Nick Fazekas announced that he would be returning to Reno for his senior season must have been a happy day for Coach Mark Fox. While Fazekas is a good college player, it's readily apparent from his body type and his skill set are not ready for the NBA, so his decision is not only a good one for the Wolfpack, but for Fazakas himself. The return of Fazekas, Marcelus Kemp, and Ramon Sessions give the Wolfpack a solid nucleus on which to build going into the 2006-2007 season. 6'11" newcomer JaVale McGee should provide more inside presence for the Wolfpack, and that could bode well for Nevada in the NCAA Tournament. It is doubtful that Nevada can duplicate the success of their 2004 NCAA Tournament run keyed by Kirk Snyder, but the Wolfpack should be dancing for the third season in a row....and a run to the Sweet 16 is not out of the question.

23. Hofstra - I love mid-majors...any of my friends that have had the pleasure of listening to my "Bubble Watch" ramblings over the past 10 years know that there is a special place in my analysis of the college basketball landscape for mid-majors. Heck, I'm the guy that sends his wife out of town each weekend on "Bracket Buster" Saturday so I can closely watch all the mid-majors play against one another. This year, I'm on the Hofstra bandwagon. Hofstra got robbed last year and should have been an at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament. If Villanova had the best 3-guard attack in the country last year, the Pride of Hofstra could earn that title this year with Loren Stokes, Antoine Aguido, and Carlos Rivera. What could prevent Hofstra from being a special mid-major like George Mason was last year is their frontcourt after the graduation of Aurimas Kieza and Adrian Uter. Chris Gadley, Leon Washington, and Mantas Leonavicius are going to have to step up in the paint for Hofstra this year. A NCAA Tournament berth is very likely...and it's also very likely that Hofstra is going to be a popular Cinderella choice when folks starting filling out their brackets in March.

22. Florida State - I have to admit...placing the Seminoles in the Total System Failure Preseason Top 25 pains me, and the reason for that is that I have to give some love to former Auburn guard Toney Douglas. After sitting out a year as a transfer, sophomore Douglas will see if he is the point guard his proud daddy thinks he is. Having watched Douglas play significant minutes in both high school and in college as a freshman, I can honestly say that he is NOT a true point guard, and for the Seminoles' sake, I hope that Coach Leonard Hamilton can figure that out for himself rather quickly. In addition to the quickness and scoring punch provided by Douglas, the 'Noles will another lethal weapon in 6'8" forward Al Thornton. Between Douglas and Thornton, there is a good chance that Florida State will be able to score with any team, and Leonard Hamilton teams always play stout defense. I believe that the Seminoles could surprise some folks in the ACC this year, and a Sweet 16 appearance could be in the cards.

21. Southern Illinois - Coach Chris Lowery has taken the program he inherited when Bruce Weber left for Illinois and has made the Salukis an even more formidable opponent. The 2006-2007 version of SIU should be just as determined, just as tough, and just as fierce as last year's team. This year, the Salukis return their top eight players from last season, including Missouri Valley Conference tourney MVP Randal Falker and Missouri Valley Conference freshmen of the year Bryan Mullins. What I love most about the Salukis, besides returning such a deep, experienced team, is that they had the fourth best scoring defense in the country last year, and that should only improve with a more experienced roster. The Salukis have size, toughness, depth, and experience on their side this year, and Coach Lowery could be posed to lead SIU on a NCAA Tournament run much like George Mason went on last year.

20. Georgia Tech - Yes, I attended the 2004 Final Four when Paul Hewitt took one of my alma maters to the the promised land. And yes, I was in Nashville in 2005 when Louisville ended the career of my boys BJ Elder and Jarrett Jack. But last year proved to be a long year of the flats of Atlanta, but I see a return to glory for Hewitt's program this season....maybe not a trip down the road to the Georgia Dome for the Final Four, but certainly an appearance in the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets return almost everyone of substance from last year's team, except Theodis Tarver and Zam Frederick, and also bring in a potent recruiting class lead by McDonald's All-Americans Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton. Crittenton will immediately start at point guard to replace the departed Zam Frederick and will have an experienced Anthony Morrow next to him in the backcourt. My personal favorite Jacket Mario West is back for his senior season to provide solid defense and energy off the bench...but the key to this season will be 6'9" center Ra'Sean Dickey. Dickey must step up and prove that he has the skills to dominate in the post, and with better backcourt play this year, I believe that he will. Look for the Jackets to swarm the ACC the year and return to the NCAA Tournament with a team posed to make a Sweet 16 run. Of course, we'll be able to learn a lot about the Jackets as they open the season in Maui.

Coming up later...the #15 to #19 ranked teams in the Total System Failure Preseason Top 25...stay tuned!

Total System Failure Bowl Projections

I realize that ESPN, CBS, and all the sports websites do bowl projections, but these are REAL projections, not just quick predictions by the usual pundits. I've actually projected the wins and losses for all the potential bowl teams for the rest of the year to make these projections...and let me tell you that there are going to be some shockers and surprises come bowl selection time because the Big 10 and the Pac-10 are not going to have enough teams to fill in their bowl slots.

Teams labeled with a '*' indicate teams being selected for a bowl game due to a conference not having enough bowl eligible teams.

So, without further ado, here are the official Total System Failure bowl projections:

Poinsetta Bowl (MWC #2/3 vs. At-Large): Brigham Young vs. San Jose State
Las Vegas Bowl (Pac-10 #4 vs. MWC #1): Washington State vs. Utah
New Orleans Bowl (Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA): Arkansas State vs. Southern Methodist
New Mexico Bowl (MWC #4 vs. MAC): Colorado State vs. Bowling Green
Birmingham Bowl (MAC/Big East vs. C-USA): Northern Illinois vs. Maryland*
Armed Forces Bowl (MWC #2/3 vs. C-USA #4): Texas Christian vs. Houston
Hawaii Bowl (Pac-10 #6 vs WAC): Ohio* vs. Hawaii
Motor City Bowl (MAC vs. Big 10 #7): Central Michigan vs. South Florida*
Emerald Bowl (ACC #4/5 vs. Pac-10 #4/5): Miami(FL) vs. UCLA
Independence Bowl (Big 12 #7/8 vs. SEC #8): Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Texas Bowl (Big 12 vs. Big East/C-USA): Texas Tech vs. Rutgers
Holiday Bowl (Pac-10 #2 vs. Big 12 #3): Oregon vs. Missouri
Champs Sports Bowl (Big 10 #4/5 vs. ACC #4): Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Music City Bowl (SEC #6 vs. ACC #5/6): Florida State vs. Alabama
Sun Bowl (Big 12/Big East vs. Pac-10 #3): Louisville vs. Arizona State
Insight Bowl (Big 12 #4/5 vs. Big 10 #6): Kansas State vs. South Carolina*
Alamo Bowl (Big 12 #4/5 vs. Big 10 #4/5): Texas A&M vs. Iowa
Liberty Bowl (C-USA #1 vs. SEC): Tulsa vs. LSU
Meineke Car Care Bowl (Big East/Navy vs. ACC #5/6): Navy vs. Wake Forest
Chik-Fil-A Bowl (ACC #2 vs. SEC #5): Clemson vs. Georgia
MPC Computers Bowl (WAC vs. ACC #8): Nevada vs. North Carolina State
Gator Bowl (ACC #3 vs. Big 12/Big East): Boston College vs. Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl (SEC vs. Big 12 #2): Arkansas vs. Nebraska
Outback Bowl (SEC vs. Big 10 #3): Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Capital One Bowl (SEC vs. Big 10 #2): Florida vs. Purdue
International Bowl (MAC #3 vs. Big East #4/5): Western Michigan vs. Pittsburgh
GMAC Bowl (C-USA #2 vs. MAC): Southern Miss vs. Kent State

Rose Bowl: California vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Southern Cal
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
BCS Title Game: Auburn vs. Ohio State

QB Stanbeck - Out for the Season

This is a sad day for college football fans across the country. Isaiah Stanbeck is out for the year after injuring his foot against Oregon State this past weekend. Stanbeck is one of the most electrifying players in college football, and even though he may not be as well known as stars like Adrian Peterson or Troy Smith, Stanbeck was a gamebreaker. Anyone who watched Stanbeck lead Washington against USC earlier this year had to be impressed with him. He reminds me of a poor man's Donovan McNabb, and I believe that Stanbeck could have possibly taken his Huskies to a bowl game this year. Ty Willingham will somehow have to figure out how to pick up the pieces of this broken season now that Stanbeck is out...but how can you replace the irreplaceable?

Monday, October 16, 2006

College Football - Week 7 Review

Random Musings on Week 7

Editor's Note: Special thanks to one of the greatest American rock bands of all-time, Chicago, for providing the titles for each of this week's musings..

1. Feelin' Stronger Every Day - The feel good story of the year took place this weekend in Bloomington, Indiana. The Drew Tate hype machine hit another pothole on Saturday afternoon against the mighty Hoosiers when the Big Red machine upset the Hawkeyes 31 to 28. Of course, the obvious thing to note is that this was the biggest win in Bloomington since the Hoosiers knocked off Ohio State in 1987. And how can anyone forget the amazing interception by safety Will Meyers! However, the feel good element of the story is the one thought caught my attention. With Coach Terry Hoeppner coming off another brain surgery just a few short weeks ago, the Hoosiers have moved to a 4-3 record. This win was so huge for Coach Hoeppner that his former quarterback at Miami(OH) - none other than Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger - called him after the game. The real question is just how much of a feel good story will this be?...can the Hoosiers reach a ball game since the glory days of Trent Green? The Hoosiers have five games left on their schedule, and they need only 2 more wins to qualify for a bowl game. Of course with Ohio State and Michigan being two of those 5 games, it really comes down to can the Hoosiers win two of three against Michigan State at home, Minnesota on the road, and Purdue on the road. The odds are stacked against the Hoosiers, but just having Hoeppner back on the sidelines is more important than a berth in a bowl game. Here's hoping that the Hoosiers can shock the world next week in Columbus against the Buckeyes!!!


2. Alive Again - I know a lot of good Auburn football fans, and I even consider myself to be one, but I don't think many of us Auburn fans really gave the Tigers much a chance to beat the undefeated and #2 ranked Gators on Saturday night. While some pundits would agree that Auburn's defense struggles with smashmouth football teams like Arkansas, I'd argue that the results against finesse teams like Buffalo and South Carolina indicated that the Tigers' defense would struggle mightily against the spread option attack of Urban Meyer. In the first half, the Auburn defense did just that, but something changed at halftime. Did Coach Will Muschamp (or Mus-chump) really make halftime adjustments? Did Tommy Tuberville assume control of the defense? Or did Tuberville challenging the manhood of the Tigers during his halftime speech really have that much of an impact? I have a feeling that speech by Tuberville rivaled the speech by my former B-Team basketball coach, Randy Stephenson, when he chastised us for having a guy in sweatpants beating us up and down the court, but that's a story for another blog. The second half was a return to the Auburn defense from the LSU game, and it could not have come at a better time, because the Auburn offense is just not clicking. It's time for Brad Lester to get more carries and have a larger role since Kenny Irons is not 100 percent. It's time for Gabe McKenzie to play more than Tommy Trott at tight end, because Trott might be the worst blocking tight end in the SEC. Who would have thought that Auburn would miss Cole Bennett this much? Regardless of the problems on offense, Auburn has reasserted itself as the best team in the SEC and could possibly sneak back into the national championship race with its #4 BCS ranking. Auburn has 3 weeks to figure out its problems on offense as Tulane, Ole Miss, and Arkansas State mercifully appear on the schedule before "Amen Corner". Hopefully, Al Borges can solve the riddle of how to avoid kicking field goals in the red zone and actually punch the ball into the end zone. And from my seat, here's two suggestions - quit running the screen pass and quit running the bootleg to the tight end on third down.

3. Where Do We Go From Here - I honestly do not know how much lower the Miami(FL) program can sink this year. It's one thing to struggle on the field and squeak past weak opponents in the Orange Bowl, but what took place on Saturday night in the Orange Bowl is probably the biggest disgrace in the history of college football...well, maybe except for Alabama's football team wearing houndstooth trim around the neck of their home uniforms to honor a coach who has been dead for 25 years. Of course, the brawl, the helmet swinging, and the stomping of FIU players already on the ground have been the major items discussed and rightfully so. But aside from the disgusting display of violence during a football game, what really stuck out to me was that Miami fullback James Bryant bowed....yes, actually took a freaking bow...after scoring a touchdown against lowly FIU to put the 'mighty' Miami Hurricanes up 14-0 in the third quarter. Since when do Miami players take a bow for scoring a touchdown against a winless team that only started playing football in 2002? Larry Coker should throw Bryant off of the team for instigating the brawl with his theatrics. I am all for self-expression, and I love what Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, and Terrell Owens do in the NFL, but that's against elite competition. You don't take bows for scoring a touchdown against a winless, weak college football team. So where does the Miami program go from here? I'll be cheering for rock bottom next week when the Hurricanes travel to Duke. A loss to the Blue Devils would surely signify rock bottom for the "U".

4. The Road - The Vanderbilt Commodores have had long, treacherous road schedule this fall. The Commodores have traveled to the Big House in Ann Arbor to battle the #3 BCS-ranked Wolverines. They've traveled to the Capstone (or Crapstone some Alabama law school alums that I know in Montgomery, AL) to battle the Crimson Tide of Alabama. They visited the Grove in Oxford, Mississippi to take on Coach O and his WILD BOYS of Ole Miss. All three of those road trips resulted in tough losses for Vanderbilt, but that's what Commodore fans have grown to expect. And this past weekend, they took their fourth road trip to Athens, Georgia for a game between the hedges of Sanford Stadium. Of course, no one really thought that the 'Dores would have a shot on the road against the Bulldogs of Georgia, but this time, it was the 'Dores who hunkered down and whipped the Dawgs. Although it took a last second field goal to pull off the upset, Vanderbilt really dominated this game and could have won by a much larger margin without some key turnovers. QB Chris Nickson looks special, and the next three years of Vanderbilt football could bring some mild success for Coach Johnson's program. Every SEC fan has a special place in their heart for the Commodores, so Saturday's upset win against Georgia caused cheers from the bluegrass of Kentucky down to the swamps of Louisiana, but the cheers were especially loud for all SEC fans in the metro Atlanta area who aren't Georgia fans. The Bulldog nation is in shambles, and I don't even think another letter to the editor of the Atlanta Journal Constitution from the governor is going to protect Richt and his Dawgs from some harsh criticism. Ah, what a great week to live in Atlanta!

5. Goodbye - For all practical purposes, the college football career of Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson is over. Peterson was having a spectacular game against Iowa State when he broke a 53-yard touchdown run and fell awkwardly on his shoulder as he was tripped up at the goal line. Of course, one must wonder why Peterson was even in the game when the Sooners were winning 27-9 with 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I realize that Peterson's father was getting to watch his son play for the time since being released from prison, but still, you cannot jeopardize the rest of your football season to let a player pile up individual statistics. The Sooners' season is pretty much over now. Upcoming road games to Missouri and to Texas A&M could have the Sooners looking at a 4 loss season. But back to Peterson....what I will always remember about his college career is my sister, who was a graduate student in music at Oklahoma at the time, telling me about Peterson falling asleep in a music class as a freshman and falling out of his chair. Peterson ran out of the class with an injured shoulder and never came back to the class. I believe he still got an "A" in the class though.

6. Old Days - Football at Southern Methodist University has not mattered in over 20 years. The Mustangs have not played in a bowl game since 1984 when they defeated Notre Dame 27-20 in the Aloha Bowl. Granted SMU football did not even exist during the 1987 and 1988 seasons, but since the halcyon days of Craig James and Eric Dickerson, college football in the Highland Park area of Dallas has not generated much excitement. That could change this year though. Phil Bennett, a protege of Kansas State's Bill Snyder, has the Mustangs on the brink of possibly qualifying for a bowl game after their 31-21 victory over Marshall pushed SMU's record to 4-3. With 5 games to play, the Mustangs need only 2 more wins to qualify for a bowl game. Unlike Indiana, SMU's remaining schedule makes a bowl game a real possibility. Home games against 3-4 UAB and road games at 2-4 East Carolina and 2-5 Rice give the Mustangs a realistic shot at a 7-5 record. You have to believe that the Fort Worth Bowl is pulling for a strong finish by the Mustangs.

7. Hard Habit to Break - Over the past few years, Virginia Tech has developed quite a reputation, and unfortunately, it's a reputation of which Coach Beamer, the university administration, and alumni are not exactly proud. I hate to use words like 'thugs' and 'punks', but that is exactly what the Hokies have played like on numerous occasions over the past few years. Of course, it's easy to put all the blame on former quarterback Marcus Vick as his stomping of a Louisville player epitomizes the dirty play of the Hokies in recent years. I remember sitting in the upper deck two years ago when Virginia Tech traveled to Georgia Tech for a Thursday night game and was appalled by the personal fouls for late hits and taunting against the Hokies. Frank Beamer is now fining his players as a means of discipline, but based on the sideline behavior at the Boston College game, Hokie players just cannot seem to behave themselves. Throw in the suspensions of Josh Morgan, Josh Hyman, and Chris Ellis during this season, and you've got a team that is out of control and has no leadership. How long will Virginia Tech fans continue to tolerate this kind of behavior from its football program? Virginia Tech is just barely a step above Miami Hurricane football when it comes to discipline. Fortunately, for Beamer, his Hokie teams typically win 9 to 10 games and go to New Years Day bowl games. What happens when his teams start losing? Well, we may find out this year as the Hokies could drop 4 or more games.


And finally, one man's attempt to rank the Top 25 teams in the country:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. West Virginia
5. Auburn
6. Louisville
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. Tennessee
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. California
13. Georgia Tech
14. LSU
15. Rutgers
16. Arkansas
17. Oregon
18. Boise State
19. Nebraska
20. Boston College
21. Oklahoma
22. Wake Forest
23. Texas A&M
24. Missouri
25. Pittsburgh